Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – China again reports a decline in population. In 2023, the Bamboo Curtain country will record the lowest birth rate in history. Launching from South Morning China Post (SCMP)the report's data raises concerns about China's long-term growth prospects as the world's second-largest economy.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) noted that the overall population in China will fall by 2.08 million people in 2023, namely to 1.4097 billion. In 2022, the population in China will be 1.4118 billion people.
It was recorded that more than 9 million babies were born in 2023. This is the lowest birth rate since records began in 1949. Meanwhile, around 11 million people died and pushed the death rate to the highest level in five decades.
In detail, this decline in the number of newborns is the lowest birth rate in the last seven decades with 6.39 births for every 1,000 people, compared to 6.77 births in 2022.
Meanwhile, 11.1 million people will die in 2023, an increase of 690,000 compared to 2022. As a result, the national death rate is 7.87 per 1,000 people.
China's official population data includes 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, as well as members of the military, but does not include foreigners.
The cause of China's population decline
According to a report by the State Council Development Research Center, China's one-child policy from 1980 to 2015 was one of the factors behind China's birth rate falling faster than in other countries in the world. It only took 20 years for China to reduce its fertility rate from 5.5 to 2.1, whereas other countries in East Asia took an average of 30 years.
A fertility rate of 2.1 (the average number one woman is expected to give birth to during one lifetime) is known as the replacement rate and is generally considered the “magic number” to ensure population stability.
Photo: People walk past the Bell Tower amidst snowfall in Beijing, China December 13, 2023. (REUTERS/TINGSHU WANG)
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For further comparison, it took the world 58 years to see the average fertility rate fall from 5 to the current 2.3.
This population decline was announced when China's economy officially reached a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 5.2 percent in 2023. However, the Bamboo Curtain country still faces various threats to sustainable development, including the property market crisis, weak investor confidence, and low external demand.
Having previously benefited greatly from the demographic dividend, China will face long-term challenges, such as fewer working age workers, weak purchasing power, and a strained social security system amid its demographic shift.
However, according to a research note from Huafu Securities published in December 2023, China is in a position to overcome a number of demographic problems thanks to the rapid development of robotics.
“Replacing humans with robots shows its economic benefits amidst labor shortages and rising labor costs,” reported the note, quoted Wednesday (17/1/2024).
In 2022, China was ranked fifth in the world after South Korea, Singapore, Germany and Japan in terms of robot density in the manufacturing sector, following increased efforts to increase industrial automation from Beijing.
“Massive investment in automation [menghasilkan] “high robot density, namely 392 robots per 10 thousand employees, despite having a large workforce of around 38 million people in the manufacturing industry,” wrote the IFR report January 10, 2023.
The effect of population decline on China's economy
Photo: Chinese New Year celebrations in Beijing (AP/Andy Wong)
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According to the Vice President of the China Chief Economist Forum Research Institute, Lin Caiyi, a decrease in the birth rate will result in a decrease in the number of the workforce. In the end, this condition will cause economic growth to slow down.
“The pressure on social insurance spending is also increasing every year as the population ages,” Caiyi said
Professor Peng Xizhe from the Center for Population and Development Policy Studies at Fudan University said that China's overall population could potentially experience a sharper decline in the next few years.
According to Peng, pronatalist policies after the Covid-19 pandemic have made little difference. He said the number of babies born each year may recover slightly, but is unlikely to exceed 10 million.
“An increase in deaths related to Covid-19 may occur as early as 2023. Looking ahead, as the population ages, annual deaths will continue to increase in the future, exceeding 10 million people each year,” Peng said.
“Therefore, with the number of deaths exceeding the number of births, it is almost certain that the population will continue to experience negative growth,” he continued.
[Gambas:Video CNBC]
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