Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that several regions in Indonesia have the potential to experience drought, although a number of other areas experience low intensity rain.
BMKG said that annual rainfall in 2024 is predicted to be around more than 2,500 mm per year. This condition is generally the same as normal. This was revealed in the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) report entitled Climate Outlook 2024.
However, several areas will experience below normal annual rain, which is predicted to occur in parts of Banten, a small part of West Java, a small part of Central Java, a small part of Yogyakarta, a small part of East Java and a small part of East Nusa Tenggara.
“Even though only a small part of Indonesia experiences annual rainfall below normal, we still have to be wary of areas that will experience prolonged days without rain, especially in Bali, West Nusa Tenggara and East Nusa Tenggara,” wrote BMKG in the report, quoted Friday (9/2/2024).
Apart from the drought occurring in the region, BMKG also warned of forest and land fires (karhutla), especially in Sumatra and Kalimantan, which have the potential to be greater compared to the 2020-2022 period, where the dry season was above normal (wetter).
Meanwhile, surface temperatures in 2024 are predicted to be warmer than normal, but the possibility of a heat wave phenomenon in Indonesia is quite small.
“This is because our area is surrounded by oceans and has high air humidity so it is difficult for this to happen heatwave in the Indonesian archipelago,” wrote BMKG.
RI Region Low Rainfall 2024
Although total annual rainfall for 2024 is predicted to be close to normal conditions, the distribution of monthly rainfall is predicted to not always be normal.
At the beginning of the year until the first quarter, rainfall during the rainy season is predicted to be normal. except for southern Indonesia, it is predicted to be below normal.
Meanwhile, in the second quarter, rainfall at the start of the dry season is predicted to be generally normal in the middle of the year, then the start of the rainy season in the third quarter to the end of the year is predicted to trend lower than normal.
BMKG also compared predictions of 2024 rainfall with normal rainfall (1991-2020 period) and 2023.
The following is a comparison of 2024 rainfall with normal rainfall:
January
Rainfall tends to be normal.
Areas where rainfall is predicted to be below normal include southern Lampung, Java, parts of Bali, parts of West Nusa Tenggara, parts of West Nusa Tenggara, parts of NTT, central North Kalimantan, northern East Kalimantan, northern North Maluku, and parts of Papua. middle.
February
Rainfall tends to be normal.
Areas where rainfall is predicted to be below normal are northern Aceh, northern North Sumatra, parts of Banten, a small part of West Java, parts of Yogyakarta, parts of NTT, northern Central Sulawesi, northern North Maluku and central Papua.
March
Rainfall tends to be normal.
Areas where rainfall is predicted to be below normal are northern Aceh, northern North Sumatra, a small part of West Java, parts of NTT, northern East Kalimantan, northern Central Sulawesi and central Papua.
April
Rainfall tends to be higher than normal.
Areas where rainfall is predicted to be below normal are a small part of Aceh, a small part of West Java and a small part of Papua.
May
Rainfall tends to be normal.
Areas where rainfall is predicted to be below normal are a small part of Aceh, a small part of West Java, a small part of East Java, a small part of NTT and a small part of Papua.
June
Rainfall tends to be normal.
Areas where rainfall is predicted to be below normal are a small part of Aceh, a small part of West Java, a small part of East Java, parts of NTT, southern South Sulawesi and southern Papua.
July
Rainfall tends to be normal.
Areas where rainfall is predicted to be below normal are parts of Lampung, parts of Banten, a small part of West Java, northern Central Java, northern East Java, parts of NTB, parts of NTT, southern Kalimantan, southern Sulawesi, southern Maluku, parts of Papua West and northern Papua.
August
Rainfall tends to be normal.
Areas where rainfall is predicted to be below normal include southern Sumatra, northern Java, northern Bali, southern Kalimantan, parts of NTB, parts of NTT, Maluku, parts of Maluku, most of West Papua and southern Papua.
September
Rainfall tends to be normal.
Areas where rainfall is predicted to be below normal are southern Sumatra, parts of NTT, a small part of Central Kalimantan, a small part of Maluku, parts of West Papua and southern Papua.
October
Rainfall tends to be lower than normal, except for northern Aceh, central West Sumatra, a small part of East Java, parts of West Nusa Tenggara, parts of East Nusa Tenggara, a small part of Sulawesi and northern Papua where rainfall is predicted to be above normal.
November
Tends to be lower than normal, except for the southern part of West Sumatra, a small part of East Nusa Tenggara, central Sulawesi, western Maluku, eastern West Papua and northern Papua where rainfall is predicted to be above normal.
December
Tends to be below normal to normal. However, several areas, such as northern Jambi, southern Central Sulawesi, central South Sulawesi and northern West Papua, are predicted to experience above normal rainfall.
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